Wednesday, 16 September 2015

How to vote Strategically in Canada on 19 October 2015

Updated @ 11:00 EST on 16 October, 2105 with new poll numbers.


Sadly, in the absence of a better electoral system, I'm holding my nose and repurposing this tool that worked in Ontario's last election, for our upcoming Federal election. Doubly sadly, under the current electoral system, by voting for the candidate you do want, you may also be opening the door to the party you don't want to see winning.

A candidate you do not want to see elected (such as Voldemort or Sauron), might win with 30% of the vote in your riding because the more acceptable candidate you might have considered got 29%, while the well-meaning guy or gal you went and voted for, got 5% or even 25%.

Had you strategically cast your vote for the person now in second place, you may have been able to keep the barbarian who ended up coming first, outside the gates of the citadel.

Here's how to vote strategically:
  1. If you don't know it already, find your electoral district
  2. Then look up your riding on one of these charts (Projections for all 338 Federal Ridings)
    (Scroll to the lower half of that page. List by Province West to East, then alphabetically)

    Blue: Progressive Conservatives ; Red: Liberal Party ; Orange: NDP ; Light Blue- Bloc; Green: Green Party ; Black: Others
  3. If you don't like whoever is polling at #1,
    and you can accept whoever is at #2,
    and the candidate you thought you wanted to vote for is at #3, #4 or #5,
    vote for the person who is at #2 so he or she has a better chance of beating #1 and winning on June 12.
There it's that simple.

Irrespective of your political stripe, and in the absence of us having a fair voting system like RaBIT (Ranked Ballot Initiative), you may want to use your vote strategically.

Like it or not, this is the system we have, and it is your choice whether you want to play it or not. On the morning of June 13, if the party you really did not want, holds the reigns of power, because YOU voted for the Four Leaf Clover Party, you'll only have yourself to blame.

In closing, if you are able and eligible to vote, and choose not to, you actually voted for whoever wins...

Disclaimers:
1. "To disaggregate provincial polls with relatively small sample sizes to seats, with many assumptions involved, is foolhardy. This doesn't mean the general direction of the model isn't correct, only that we must be careful of false precision." - ZT
2. Riding Projections Chart courtesy ThreeHundredEight.com. Will be updated regularly on this blog page based on the latest available information.


Monday, 2 June 2014

How to vote Strategically in Ontario on 12 June 2014

Updated @ 10:30 AM EST on 12 June, 2104 with new poll numbers.

Sadly, under the current electoral system, by voting for the candidate you do want, you may also be opening the door to the party you don't want to see winning.

A candidate you do not want to see elected (such as Voldemort or Sauron), might win with 30% of the vote in your riding because the more acceptable candidate you might have considered got 29%, while the well-meaning guy or gal you went and voted for, got 5% or even 25%.

Had you strategically cast your vote for the person now in second place, you may have been able to keep the barbarian who ended up coming first, outside the gates of the citadel.

Here's how to vote strategically:
  1. If you don't know it already, find your electoral district
  2. Then look up your riding on this polling chart 
    (updated @ 10:30 AM EST on 12 June 2014)
    Blue: Progressive Conservatives ; Red: Liberal Party ; Orange: NDP ; Green: Green Party ; Black: Others
  3. If you don't like whoever is polling at #1,
    and you can accept whoever is at #2,
    and the candidate you thought you wanted to vote for is at #3, #4 or #5,
    vote for the person who is at #2 so he or she has a better chance of beating #1 and winning on June 12.
There it's that simple.

Irrespective of your political stripe, and in the absence of us having a fair voting system like RaBIT (Ranked Ballot Initiative), you may want to use your vote strategically.

Like it or not, this is the system we have, and it is your choice whether you want to play it or not. On the morning of June 13, if the party you really did not want, holds the reigns of power, because YOU voted for the Four Leaf Clover Party, you'll only have yourself to blame.

In closing, if you are able and eligible to vote, and choose not to, you actually voted for whoever wins...

Disclaimers:
1. "To disaggregate provincial polls with relatively small sample sizes to seats, with many assumptions involved, is foolhardy. This doesn't mean the general direction of the model isn't correct, only that we must be careful of false precision." - ZT
2. Riding Projections Chart courtesy ThreeHundredEight.com. Will be updated regularly on this blog page based on the latest available information.

Saturday, 17 May 2014

India Voted, and this is what the numbers really say...


After five gruelling weeks, Friday's vote count marked a tremendous victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) allies, under the leadership of its controversial Prime Minister in waiting, Narendra Modi. With almost all of the record-setting 550 million votes counted, the Country's once-dominant Congress Party, that has hobbled with its United Progressive Alliance (UPA) allies through the past five years, has been severely punished. This was a hard fought and fair battle, and Mr. Modi and the BJP deserve their victory.

The BJP's strong showing in terms of seats won in India's 543 seat Lok Sabha (parliament), gives it an absolute legislative majority. When its NDA allies are included in the count, it has an even stronger mandate to make change. Even BJP-friendly psephologists failed to gauge the wide margin of the final tally. As the BJP prepares to take the reigns of government, they should do so with thought and caution. A look under the hood of the results reveals that the vote of confidence in the BJP, may not have been as convincing as it is being made out to be.

The diagram below compares the ratio of seats won by the different alliances in the new parliament with their shares of the total vote. The BJP and its allies won just over 61% of the 543 seats with 39% of the national vote. The Congress and its allies however scraped in with 11% of the seats, even though they retained 24% of the vote. Democracies aren't perfect, and for better or for worse, the 'first past the post' voting system at the level of each individual constituency (that India and many other former British colonies inherited), allows for this.

Comparison of share of seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha with the share of votes nationally in the 2014 Indian election. Graph created by Tanzeel Merchant.

If the BJP wants a second term though, it should heed the warnings that the underlying numbers reveal. As illustrated in the graph below, compared to the 2009 election, the BJP and its allies' share of the total national vote increased by only 5% in 2014. This is hardly a convincing endorsement, either in terms of the share of the national vote, or of the much hyped 'NaMo factor'. It was in fact the Congress and its allies' loss of 11% of the vote, most of it to other fragmented parties, that allowed the NDA to gain more seats. These other non-aligned parties in fact increased their total share of the vote, gaining almost 7%.
Comparison of Indian national election vote share in 2009 and 2014, by political alliance. Graph created by Tanzeel Merchant.
This election is also important for what it was not. Indians made it clear that they do not endorse the divisive religious politics that many fear will accompany a BJP government. 62% of the country voted for someone other than the BJP and its allies. In an interview with the Press Trust of India, BJP patriarch LK Advani is right when he said "In this victory, the contribution of Modi's leadership, RSS and other organisations like the BJP, has to be analysed. But the result mainly is against corruption, misgovernance and dynastic rule [of the Congress]." This was not just a vote for the BJP, but more so a vote against the Congress and its allies, by a population disgusted by decades of corruption, patronage and mismanagement.
2014 Indian election vote share by party. Source: Election Commission of India. May 17, 2014 @ 1 am.
Congratulations to Mr. Modi! He is a smart and very capable man, and I have no doubt that he knows how high the stakes are. It is important that he acts as the leader of the entire nation, and not just the 38% that voted for him and his allies. The pie chart above illustrates the spectrum of political diversity and distribution of votes in this election. The BJP is the orange wedge, and the Congress the purple one.

If the BJP and its allies wish to be voted back for a second term in 2019, they need to spend the next five years delivering on the real reasons for their electoral success. In his victory speech, Narendra Modi acknowledged as much when he said, "The people of this country have given their verdict. This verdict says we have to make the dreams of 1.25 billion people come true. I must work hard."

Instead of implementing an ideologically-driven policy agenda, this new administration should focus on ensuring inclusive and fair development across India. They should act on weeding out corruption, enforcing law and order, entrenching equity and secularism in their truest sense, and ensuring that a rising tide of economic reform will lift everyone with it.

Mr. Modi has a chance now to decide if that is what he will leave as his legacy. India has agreed to allow the BJP in, but it is yet to be convinced that it wants it to stay. If he fails, the very tide that swept him in, has just shown that it can sweep him out too.

Sunday, 24 November 2013

A fire started, people died, and it didn’t seem to matter

A fire started late in the morning on Thursday, a few minutes away from our family home in Colaba and Cuffe Parade area. Like most of Mumbai, apartments for the middle class and “up”, jostle for space with swathes of slums. In the picture below, the fine-grained texture of the nearby slums is quite visible beside the apartment buildings in their sea of trees.


The few mainstream media outlets that did bother to cover this story, made passing mention of just one person dying and got the location and name of the slum wrong, placing it several hours north of where it actually is.

While the haves revel in their ostentatious displays of wealth, and the Canada Pension Plan’s decision to find higher returns is celebrated, there is little space in what is the “new India” to acknowledge the silent majority in this city, let alone grieve for their loss.

Read more: 
http://forbesindia.com/blog/economy-policy/a-fire-started-people-died-and-it-didnt-seem-to-matter-mumbai/

Sunday, 13 October 2013

Lessons From Detroit’s Demise

In the first quarter of 2013, approximately 40% of Detroit’s street lights did not work. The City cannot afford to repair or keep the lights on any more… with up to twenty city neighborhoods that were less than fifteen-per-cent occupied.

Read more: http://forbesindia.com/blog/author/tanzeel-merchant/#ixzz2hZeQPKOz

It’s Not About Size… It’s About Sanitation

Rich or poor, we breathe the same air and even if we’re sipping from bottles of Evian in our Maybachs in Mumbai, we’re no better off. In essence we’re leaving cities in India and large swathes of the developing world to a generation that will live shorter, unhealthier and less productive lives for no fault of their own. The real culprits are likely pointing back at us in the mirror. Every plastic wrapper thrown out of a rickshaw, every paan spat out on a wall, every slum dweller than defecated on the sidewalk, add up to an enormous mountain of shit!

Read more: http://forbesindia.com/blog/category/economy-policy/#ixzz2hZe49aqr

Wednesday, 10 July 2013

Of Heights and Hubris- Skyscrapers as Barometers of Economic Exuberance

My eight-grade English teacher, Mrs. Isaacs, would often tell us “man is not condemned to repeat history, but to rhyme with it”. As much as we have progressed in science and art, in technology and medicine, we still do foolish things driven by base competitive instincts, and do not learn. The false strength of hubris is what empires have been lost to. The skyscraper may be the sword of our times on which we will fall.

Read the full article here.